欢迎收看石油星球 Welcome to Planet Oil.
过去150年 Over the last 150 years,
我们越来越依赖这特别的资源 we've become more and more dependent on this extraordinary resource.
石油造就了我们 Our use of oil defines us.
不只是交通运输 It's not just transport.
石油帮助我们建造和点亮我们的城市 Oil helps us build and light our cities.
它给我们提供食物 It grows the food we eat.
帮助制作衣服 And it helps make the clothes we wear.
但随之而来的是高昂的代价 But that comes at a high price.
为了满足我们的迷恋 To satisfy our addiction,
我们大规模地开采化石燃油 we've exploited fossil fuels on an industrial scale.
作为一名地理科学教授 我教过的学生 As a professor of geoscience, I've taught many students
他们很多成为地质学家赚了大钱 who went on to earn big money as geologists
在油气工业领域 in the oil and gas industries.
就像许多我的学术同僚 我现在面临两难 Like many of my academic colleagues, I now face a dilemma...
是否我训练的这些年轻的地质学家 ..whether the young geologists I'm training
会变成地球的剥削者 will become earth exploiters...
或者地球的管家 ..or earth stewards.
今天 气候变化的幽灵 Today, the spectre of climate change
是许多地质学家 包括我自己 has forced many geologists, including myself,
都遭遇到我们面临的一个严峻的现实问题 to confront the stark realities of one big question facing us all.
那就是 就算有充足的化石燃油在 And that is, given that there's loads of fossil fuels
地底下 still in the ground,
我们真的能够负担全部燃烧它们吗？ can we really afford to burn what's left?
但只是我们怎样xxx？ But just how did we get here?
我们真得能够戒掉瘾头吗？ And is it really possible to kick our addiction?
我生长在70年代 I grew up in the seventies,
我记得能源危机瘟疫的十年 and I remember it as a decade plagued by energy crises.
那时候 气候变化还没有引起注意 Back then, climate change wasn't on the radar.
我们担心的是缺乏可靠的能源供应 What gripped us was the lack of a reliable oil supply.
灯能够一直亮着吗？ Would the lights keep going out?
有足够的汽油给汽车用吗？ Would there be enough fuel for our cars?
到了80年代 但我还是地理系新生时 Come the eighties, when I was a fresh-faced geology student,
所有一切即将改变 all that was about to change.
你缺乏石油更加严重 Rather than a lack of oil,
我们将遭遇一个充满这东西的世界 we were about to confront a world with too much of it.
这里是Statfjord石油平台 This is the Statfjord platform,
坐落在北部海最大之一的油田上 which sits on one of the largest oilfields in the North Sea.
是挪威1979年发现的 The Norwegians have drilled it since 1979,
但是他产出的巨大营业额是和英国一起分享 but the huge revenues it produces is shared with the UK.
哦 所以这是北部海石油 原油 Wow! So this is North Sea oil, crude.
一个小时前 想想就觉得非常棒 It's amazing to think that an hour or so ago,
在我们脚下3000米 that was 3,000 metres down below us
一直非常愉快地坐在那里 and had been sitting there very happily for, I don't know,
有1亿5千万年 看看现在 150 million years, and look at it now.
这是纯粹的液体金钱 It's just pure liquid money.
太了不起了 That's amazing!
这片水域的石油发现的记者招待会 The discovery of oil from these waters was announced to the press
是在1971年的Aberdeen机场 in 1971 at Aberdeen airport.
宣布来自这位BP公司代表 The announcement came from this BP representative
穿着方格花纹衬衣 头戴一顶安全帽 who was wearing a tartan shirt, a hard hat,
拿着一个沙拉奶油瓶 and holding a bottle of salad cream,
装着看起来像跑了气的Guinness啤酒 filled with what seemed to be flat Guinness.
然后他说：这是北部海石油 And he said, "This is North Sea oil!"
但重要的是 这不是什么以前的石油 But the thing was, it wasn't any old oil.
正被谈论的油田是传说中的Forties油田 The field in question was the fabled Forties Field,
拥有高达18亿桶石油 with a whopping 1.8 billion barrels of oil.
这是石油工业里面著名的“大象油田” It's what's known in the business as an elephant field.
北部海石油工业诞生了 The North Sea oil industry was born.
英国争先恐后地开采石油 Britain scrambled to extract the oil.
之后十年里 我们享受着这个好处 And within a decade, we were enjoying the benefits.
到1985年 英国财政部达到了令人难以相信的 By 1985, the UK Treasury was earning a staggering
每小时250万英镑的营业额 £2.5 million per hour in revenues.
石油刺激了经济 帮助我们避免了衰退 Oil stimulated the economy and helped pull us out of recession.
80年代后期 英国繁荣昌盛 And in the late eighties, Britain was booming...
新的石油储备还在被发掘 ..and still new reservoirs of oil were being discovered.
石油公司投资数十亿研发 Oil companies poured billions into developing
更多的海上设施 yet more offshore facilities.
Jim Cook壳牌的Shearwater石油平台安装经理 Jim Cook, installation manager of Shell's Shearwater platform,
在北部海大淘金时期他就在那里 was there during that North Sea bonanza.
那时有一种巨大的冒险感和巨大的不确定性 There was a huge sense of adventure, a huge sense of unknown.
当你上了那直升机 你不知道 When you got on that helicopter, you didn't really know
你将要去干什么 然后你就到达了 what you were going into, and then you arrived. Yeah.
科技改变 And the technology changes
是如此之大 不是吗？ that was going on was extraordinary, wasn't it?
真的巨大 当你回想那些年 It's huge. When you think back in the early days
当我们建造某些真的很大的平台 when we built some of the really big platforms,
是在现场建造的 they were built on site.
你知道不寻常 You know it was not unusual
让2000人住在3层楼的综合体 to have 2,000 guys living over three complex installations
每天就在那里建造 building everything out here.
这差不多是小型的工业革命 It was almost a mini Industrial Revolution.
你会略知一二吗？ 那些当时你周围的东西 Was there any inkling in your minds and those around you at the time
会变得如此巨大？ that it was going to grow this big?
不会 只是会认为近几年才发生的 No. It was only supposed to last a few years.
那时是黄金年代 繁荣昌盛 It was the golden years, it was a boom.
但不只是繁荣 短短时间里 But it was more than a boom. For a short time,
北部海的产量和沙特阿拉伯一样多 the North Sea produced as much oil as Saudi Arabia.
差不多同时 另外巨大的发现在阿拉斯加 Around the same time, other huge discoveries were made in Alaska...
墨西哥湾 ..and the Gulf of Mexico.
所有这些新的石油意味着世界在里面游泳 All this new oil meant the world was swimming in it.
但是当全球市场被泛滥的石油冲击 价格暴跌 But as the world markets were hit by the deluge, prices plummeted.
世界的石油如洪水一般 The world was flooded with oil.
一份财经杂志抱怨石油供大于求 The financial press complained of an oil glut.
实际上 石油是如此之多 某个时候 In fact, there was so much oil that, at one point,
石油的价格比瓶装水还便宜 the price of oil was cheaper than bottled water.
你会认为便宜的石油对大家都有好处 You would think that cheap oil would be good news for all.
当石油帮助英国挣脱经济衰退 While oil helped the UK claw its way out of an economic recession,
对于其他国家 将会被证明是一场灾难 for other nations, it would prove to be a disaster.
苏联曾是富油国 The Soviet Union was rich in oil,
俄罗斯进一个世纪以来一直卖油给西方社会 and the Russians had been selling it to the West for nearly a century.
当石油价格高企的时候 从石油里赚得美金 When prices were high, the hard-dollar earnings from oil
可以帮助支付苏联的核武器项目 had helped pay for the Soviet nuclear arms programme
最根本的比如食物和服装进口 and essentials like food and clothing imports.
但是当石油价格下降到1980年底时 But when the price of oil dropped in the 1980s,
整个苏联经济受到威胁 the whole Soviet economy was threatened.
这幅壁画是献给所有这些工人 This mural's a tribute to all those workers
在苏联油田的艰难度日 that toiled away in the Soviet oilfields.
你可以理解每一滴石油是那么挣扎 You get a sense there of just how much struggle every drop was.
但是尽管增加了产量 到了1991年 But despite upping production, by 1991,
苏联帝国自己血液流尽而亡 the Soviet Empire itself was bleeding to death.
而杀死它的帮凶就是石油的价格 And what was helping to kill it was the price of oil.
当苏联经济崩溃 定量配给政策引入 As the Soviet economy collapsed, rationing was introduced.
依然记得苏联最后统治的那些日子 Vera Neserova can remember living under the last days of Soviet rule.
我能问问 在哪个时节点定量供应开始? Can I ask, at what point did rationing come in,
这制度的突然开始你惊讶吗？ and were you surprised that it suddenly came in?
之前有警告吗？ Was there any warning?
有否任何提示有些事情要发生了？ Was there any indication that something was going to come in?
那时候负责苏联的人士 The person in charge of the Soviet Union at the time
Mikhail Gorbachev总统 was President Mikhail Gorbachev.
他上台决心现代化经济 He came to power determined to modernise both the economy
和妨碍发展的政治体系 and the political system that suffocated it.
但是当石油价格崩溃 他的计划也流产了 But when the oil prices collapsed, so did his plan.
苏联的经济和政治体系早已经破产 The economic and political system in the Soviet Union was already broken.
但是当石油价格崩溃 But when the price of oil collapsed,
伟大的中央计划社会主义经济 the great centrally-planned socialist economy
再也不能充足地提供服装和食物给他的人们 could no longer adequately clothe and feed her people.
Mikhail Gorbachev于是做了一个非凡的 Mikhail Gorbachev then took an extraordinary
前所未有的步骤 and unprecedented step.
1991年圣诞节 On Christmas Day, 1991,
他在电视上宣布全国戒严 he went on TV to declare a state of national emergency.
6天以后 Six days later,
Mikhail Gorbachev 宣告苏联解体 Mikhail Gorbachev announced the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
万能强大的苏联帝国破产 The mighty Soviet Empire had just gone bust.
便宜的石油让强大的帝国跪倒在地 Cheap oil had helped to bring this mighty empire to its knees.
当苏联崩溃 As the Soviet Union crumbled,
留在后面的是这片土地无尽的财富和自然资源 it left behind untold riches in land and natural resources...
所有这些现在都是待价而沽 ..all of which was now up for grabs.
其中帝国最宝贵的资源之一是 One of the empire's most precious resources
里海的石油储备 were the oil reserves of the Caspian Sea.
我觉得这像一个城市广场是最好的描述 I'm in what I guess is best described as the town square,
但是最近的陆地是那个方向50英里外 but the nearest dry land is 50 miles in that direction.
这地方很古怪 And this place is just weird.
你可以找到度假公寓街区 You've got these holiday-style apartment blocks,
也可以找到足球场 you've got football pitches,
有电话局 博物馆 咖啡店 telephone exchanges, museums, cafes.
那里面 有餐厅 运动中心 Inside there, you've got a restaurant, a sports centre.
这是清真寺 这是医院 There's a mosque, there's a hospital.
这里是Neft Dashlari This is Neft Dashlari -
整个建造在里海上的城市 an entire town built on the Caspian Sea.
是由苏联在1940年代末期建造 It was constructed by the Soviets towards the end of the 1940s.
许多工人生活在海上 Thousands of workers lived out at sea,
穿越数十英里的路 travelling along miles of road
来这里从数百口油井开采石油 to extract oil from hundreds of wells.
它成了世界上最大的 It grew to become one of the largest
海上石油设施之一 offshore oil facilities in the world.
当苏联在90年代初崩溃时 And when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early nineties,
它落入了新独立的阿塞拜疆手里 it fell into the hands of a newly-independent Azerbaijan.
随着苏联的垮塌 每个人会问两个问题 With the Soviets gone, everyone asked two questions -
里海底下有多少石油？ how much oil was left under the Caspian,
谁可以拥有这些石油？ and who would get their hands on it?
毫不奇怪在90年代初 It's no wonder that in the early nineties,
西方的石油公司像成群的秃鹫去了里海地区 Western oil companies flocked like vultures to the Caspian region
追求阿塞拜疆新的统治者 to court Azerbaijan's new rulers.
这里将会成为新的波斯湾--石油黄金国 This could be the new Persian Gulf - an oily El Dorado.
而阿塞拜疆人准备做交易 And the Azeris were ready to make a deal.
1994年9月 数个月谈判后 In September, 1994, after months of negotiation,
阿塞拜疆总统Heydar Aliyev Azerbaijan's President Heydar Aliyev
集合了这个外交团和石油管理层 assembled this group of diplomats and oil executives
在首都巴库 in the capital, Baku.
13个石油公司代表8个国家地区 13 oil companies representing eight different nation states
聚集在这里签署被称作是 were gathered there to sign what was hailed as
世纪协议 the deal of the century.
利益攸关的是数十亿桶石油 What was at stake were billions of barrels of oil.
里海的石油向全世界供应 Caspian oil was being opened up to the world.
这也许不算什么 但是实际上 这是 It probably doesn't seem like much, does it, but, actually, this is
那“世纪协议”最为重大的表达 the most significant expression of that deal of the century?
这个管道标志着里海石油产出的跨越式变化 This pipeline marks a step change in Caspian oil production.
你完全可以感受到它的悸动 You can actually feel it throbbing.
那个悸动是大量石油的搏动 That throb is the pulse of huge amounts of oil
从几千米里海底下挖出 that's been drawn up from thousands of metres beneath the Caspian Sea,
只是再次在底下被送到这里 朝着西方奔去 only to be sent underground again here, heading west.
从里海海岸这里 From here on the Caspian coast,
新的石油管道在底下延伸500英里到 the new pipeline travelled underground for 500 miles to Supsa,
在黑海上的Supsa on the Black Sea.
从那里 石油会被运输到欧洲或更远 And from there, oil would be transported to Europe and beyond.
里海巨大的石油储备 The vast reserves of the Caspian Sea
被释放到世界 were being unleashed on a world
石油早已经洪水泛滥的世界 that was already flooded with oil.
但这只是个开始 But that was just the beginning,
因为里海的石油产出 because the oil production of the Caspian
到了没人可以想象的速度 had accelerated at a rate that no-one could have imagined.
这是Sangachal中转站 This is the Sangachal terminal.
由BP运营 是世界最大的油气中转站之一 Run by BP, it's one of the largest oil and gas terminals in the world.
里海石油如此丰富 这些外国公司决定 Caspian oil was so abundant that the foreign oil companies decided
另一条石油管道需要铺设 that another bigger pipeline would be needed,
也由这个中转站服务 along with this terminal to service it.
新的管道允许这些石油公司运输 The new pipeline would allow the oil companies to transport
比以往更多的阿塞拜疆石油 more oil out of Azerbaijan than ever before.
所以 目前流经这里的石油 So, what's going through here at the moment
超过70万桶每周每天 is in excess of 700,000 barrels of oil every day of the week.
在任何一个时间点 我们了解的是有 At any one point in time we've got something like
1千万桶原油在这管道里 ten million barrels of crude sitting in this pipeline.
那么值多少钱呢？ 大概 So, how much would that be worth? That's somewhere...
按照今天的价格 超过10亿美金 At today's prices, that's in excess of a billion dollars.
所有这些石油带了巨大的影响 All that oil has had an extraordinary effect
给阿塞拜疆首都巴库 on Azerbaijan's capital, Baku.
经常被称为高加索的迪拜 Often dubbed the Dubai of the Caucasus,
巴库就像是个变迁的城市 Baku feels like a city in transition.
它是石油转变力量的证明 It's a testament to the transformative power of oil.
传统的建筑和现代摩天大楼比肩 Traditional buildings rub shoulders with modern skyscrapers.
名牌店在街上随处可见 Brand stores pop up on streets
到处是骄傲的西方汽车所有者 clogged with the proud owners of Western cars.
而当20实际临近时 And as the 20th century came to a close,
同样的故事在我们的星球上演 a similar story was being played out across our planet.
阿拉斯加 墨西哥湾 Oil was now being produced in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico,
南美洲 西非 北部海 South America, West Africa, the North Sea,
里海 中东现在都产油 the Caspian, and the Middle East.
同时 发展中国家羡慕 Meanwhile, developing nations looked with envy
西方人的生活 希望同样也能这样 at the West's lifestyle, and were demanding the same.
东南亚 印度和中国迅速发展的经济 The burgeoning economies of South-East Asia, India and China
消耗了越来越多的能源 类似旅游 were consuming more and more energy in the form of travel,
塑料 服装 食品 电和房子 plastics, clothes, food, electronics and housing.
也许有很多的石油 There might have been loads of oil,
但是 全球性地 我们正在大吃大喝 but, globally, we were guzzling it like never before.
当全球的消耗剧增 As global consumption escalated,
关于即将到来的世纪 提出了疑问 questions were being asked about the coming century.
供应能够继续匹配需求吗？ Could supply possibly continue to match demand?
石油星球的下一步怎么办？ What next for Planet Oil?
当21世纪来临 As the 21st century dawned,
世界股票市场开始唤醒 the world's stock markets began to wake up to
80 90年代所未有的经济繁荣 the unprecedented economic boom of the eighties and nineties.
碳氢的暴食规模令人屏住呼吸 The scale of the hydrocarbon binge was breathtaking
有些交易员和投机客怀疑这不可持续 and some traders and speculators suspected it wasn't sustainable.
任何需求的增加 或者产量的减少 Any further increase in demand, or reduction of supply,
只会有一个结果 could only mean one thing...
价格上升 ..a price rise.
对我们所有人这是灾难 And that would be disastrous for us all.
我们已经变得如此依赖石油 We'd become so reliant on oil,
它现在刺激着全球现代经济 it now fuelled the modern global economy.
石油价格猛增将会影响我们生活的方方面面 A hike in oil prices would impact on every aspect of our lives.
确保稳定和可靠供应 Ensuring a steady and secure supply
对于保持价格稳定变得十分重要 had become crucial to keeping prices stable.
石油公司找到的确保更多石油的一个办法是 One way the oil companies found to secure more oil
利用像这样的船 was by using ships like this.
叫做“Gryphon Alpha” It's called the Gryphon Alpha.
你从空中看不出它们 但是在波浪下面 You can't see them from the air, but beneath the waves,
从附近石油平台过来的管道穿过海床 pipelines from nearby oil platforms snake their way across the seabed
供给这漂浮的油气设施 to feed this floating oil and gas facility.
可以让石油公司开采石油 It allows companies to extract oil
不用建造昂贵的石油管道到岸上 without building an expensive pipeline to take the oil ashore.
它可以分离石油和燃气 储存50万桶石油 It can separate oil and gas, store half a million barrels of oil,
然后抽到等候的油船上 and then pump it onto waiting tankers
再运输到陆地的精炼工厂 that ship it to onshore refineries.
这Robert的样品油 The oil that Robert's sampling here
来自我们脚下100米铺在海床上的管道 has come off of pipelines about 100 metres below us on the seabed,
通过分离器分离出水和燃气到这里 coming up here through separators that take off the water and the gas
然后留下成品 and then leave the finished product.
这就是Brent原油 This...is Brent crude.
真正重要的是 The really important point is that
就是这东西确定全球原油价格 it's this stuff that sets the global price of crude.
所以这些商品经纪人 So those commodity brokers
在纽约和伦敦的交易所交易 that trade on the exchange floors in New York and London
用Brent原油确定全球石油价格 use Brent crude to set the worldwide oil price.
在21世纪的头10年 And during the first decade of the 21st century,
这些价格惊人的上升 those prices were rising alarmingly.
千禧第一年 In the first years of the millennium,
石油价格大约在25美金每桶 oil prices sat at around $25 per barrel,
部分原因是对亏了充足的供应 thanks, in part, to a plentiful supply.
但是随着发展中国家的成长 石油需求上升 But as developing nations grew, demand for oil rose.
到2006年 全球石油每天的需求增加了4倍 By 2006, the world was demanding four times as much oil per day
比2000年 as it had in 2000.
这快速的需求上升被称为需求冲击 This sharp rise became known as the demand shock.
许多开始发出担忧 Many started to voice concerns
消耗的速度将不可持续 that the rate of consumption was becoming unsustainable,
包括石油人和美国总统George Bush including oilman and President of the United States, George Bush.
保持美国的竞争力需要可负担的能源 Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy,
而我们有严重的问题 and here we have a serious problem -
美国对石油上瘾 America is addicted to oil.
当需求上升 石油价格火箭般飞升 As demand rose, the price of oil rocketed.
到2008年1月 价格突破100美金每桶 By January 2008, the price broke the $100 per barrel barrier.
还没有停止 And it didn't stop there,
5月份是130美金 climbing to $130 in May,
7月份是140美金 $140 in July,
峰值记录突破147美金每桶 peaking at a record-breaking $147 per barrel.
这只能说明一件事情 To some, this could only mean one thing
就是需求已经远超过供应 demand had outstripped supply.
许多金融市场人士 Many in the financial markets
推断我们正面临所谓的“石油峰值理论” assumed we were facing something called peak oil.
为了了解世界有多快被 To get a sense of just how quickly the world became
“石油峰值”控制 gripped by the spectre of peak oil,
你只需要看一下 you just need to look at
这两本“经济人”杂志的封面 these two front covers of the Economist Magazine.
这是1999年的封面 当时石油价格大约每桶10美金 This one's from 1999, when oil was something like $10 a barrel
它就宣称我们湮没在石油里 and it proclaims that we're "drowning in oil".
然而 4年以后 当需求冲击强力抬高价格 And yet, four years later, when demand shock forced up prices,
同样的杂志宣布石油用完了 the same magazine announced that it was all over.
在以前同样的时间点 环境学家和记者 It was at this point that environmentalists and journalists
回忆这个预测 recalled the predictions
一个叫Marion King Hubbert的美国科学家做的 of an American scientist called Marion King Hubbert.
在1950年代中期 In the mid 1950s,
Hubbert已经预测了美国石油的峰值在1970年达到 Hubbert had predicted that US oil would peak in 1970.
美国石油产量将会达到顶峰 The US will hit the peak of oil production
在以后10到15年时间里 in about 10 or 15 years from that date.
换句话说 石油产量将会达到最大的顶峰 In other words, the production of oil would reach a maximum peak,
然后就不可避免地下降当储备耗尽时 and then inevitably decline as reserves ran dry.
石油公司都笑着不当回事 The oil companies laughed this off,
但是当产量真的到峰值 Hubbert被称为先知 but when production did peak, Hubbert was hailed as a prophet.
但是他继续做了第二个更烦人的预测 But he made a second and more disturbing prediction -
在21世纪前10年里 that in the early decades of the 21st century,
我们将会全部一起耗尽石油 we would run out of oil all together.
当2008年石油价格快速上升时 When oil prices spiked in 2008,
有人相信价格上升反应了残酷的事实 some believed the price rise reflected a grim truth -
我们到了石油顶峰 we had reached peak oil
就是从现在开始 我们的石油储备会减少 and that, from now on, our oil reserves were in decline.
看起来似乎Hubbert是正确的 It was looking like Hubbert was right.
即将到来的能源危机的威胁 The threat of a looming energy crisis
激起了全球购买恐慌 had sparked global panic buying.
需求冲击火上加油地相信这 That demand shock had fuelled the belief that this was
是末日的开始 峰值价格意味着石油峰值 the beginning of the end, that peak prices meant peak oil
现在开始我们将会耗尽石油 and that, from now on, we were running out.
所以 供应到了峰值吗？ So, have supplies peaked?
我们真的会耗尽吗？ Are we really running on empty?
就在2008年迅速价格上升的几个月后 Just months after the sharp price rises of 2008,
石油价格就像它们如何火箭般上升一样大幅度暴跌 oil prices fell just as dramatically as they had rocketed.
但是价格只下降了那么多 But the drop only went so far.
从那以后在价格波动时 While prices have fluctuated ever since,
还是比平均每桶25美金要高 they're still higher than the average of $25 per barrel
我们在20世界享受了很多 we enjoyed for much of the 20th century,
然后因为容易得到的石油时代结束 and that's because the days of easy oil are over.
发规模发现石油储备 The age of discovering vast new viable reserves
像北部海的时代已经结束 like the North Sea has passed.
我们现在剩下的是挖掘困难和代价昂贵的石油 We're now left with oil that's more difficult and expensive to extract.
21世纪头10年里的巨大价格上升 That huge price hike in the first decade of the 21st century
意外的收获是 had an unexpected benefit -
石油公司的利润也同样蹿升 the profits of the oil companies skyrocketed as well.
那些理论又被投资到帮助地质学家找到 And much of that was reinvested in ways to help geologists find
最大化发现的办法 ways to maximise recovery,
或者延长现有油田的寿命 or to extend the lives of the existing fields.
这些公司尝试新的办法 The companies were trying to find new ways
开采我们依赖的石油 to extract the oil that we're so dependent on.
今天他们继续在这么做 And they continue to do so today.
在阿联酋Abu Dhabi的南面 Just south of Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates,
是一座巨型的训练设施 is a huge training facility.
这里 新一代的石油工人 Here, a new generation of oil workers
训练使用新的科技 are trained in using new technology
这些科技设计出来为了发泄尽可能多的石油 that's designed to recover as much oil as possible.
我们称为容易石油的年代结束了 对吗？ The age of what we call easy oil is gone, right?
在30 40 50年代我们差不多就在那个阶段 We were almost in that state maybe 30 or 40 or 50 years ago
当时在沙特阿拉伯 你可以开采一口油井 when, in Saudi Arabia, you'd be able to drill a well
不需要真正勘察很多 你就可以从那里拿到高产 without really looking too much and you'd get good production from it.
但是当油井年龄大了 里面的水比油多 But as oil wells age, right, they fill with water rather than oil,
对的 因为你从边上打水把油压出来 right, cos you pump water from the side, to push the oil out.
这样就变得很复杂 So it gets very complicated.
Clive 这看起来 So, Clive, this looks like something
像某种来自科幻小说的东西 that's kind of out of a sci-fi movie.
这是什么？ What is this beast?
这是一个缩微翻拍器构造 有200个按钮 This is a formation microimager, and it has around 200 buttons
分布在这些你仔细看过板上 around those pads that you've just seen closing,
我们会在油井里打开它 and we'll open that in the well,
那样它就会给我们一副图像 井眼电子图 so it'll give us an image, an electrical map, of the borehole,
可以帮助地质学家正确描述储备 which will help geologists to describe the reservoir properly,
这样也许可以知道下一口油井应该挖在哪里 and be able to know where to drill the next well, perhaps.
这项科技根本上是在电线上的一个科学实验室 This technology is essentially a science lab on a wire.
它可以执行一系列测试 It can perform a barrage of tests
允许地质学家看到地底 that allow geologists to see underground.
所以Clive 这是油井？ So, Clive, is this the well?
是的 我们这里看到的是一个图像表现 Yeah, so what we're seeing here is a graphical representation
刚才我说的电子图像 of that electrical image I was talking about.
这是你的眼睛可以深入地下提前知道 These are your eyes into the ground that you were referring to earlier.
这是一个实验室 是的 电线上的实验室 This is the lab, yeah. Lab on a wire, yeah.
这个科技每天使用帮助我们 This technology is being used every day to help us
延伸石油储备的生命 确保我们拿到了所有的东西 extend the lives of the reservoirs, to make sure we get everything
尽我们可能从储备里面 out of the reservoirs that we can do.
像这样的东西是从根本上 Is it things like this that's essentially
某种对付“石油峰值”吗？ kind of, you know, putting paid to the idea of peak oil?
你总能够得到越来越多的好的科技 You'll always be able to get more and more through better technology.
如果你看一下全球的石油储备 If you look at the world oil reservoirs,
一些生产了30% 40% 70% some have produced 30, 40, 70%,
一些只有几个百分点 some have only produced a few percent.
所以底下有丰富的石油 So there's plenty of oil left in the ground,
只是你必须以更好的办法去开采它们 you just have to be cleverer in the way you extract it.
当容易石油的年代也许离去 While the age of easy oil might be behind us,
新的科技正在帮助我们发现开采 new technologies are helping us find and extract
更多比较困难的资源 ever more difficult sources.
石油峰值的观点 似乎再一次被推翻 The prospect of peak oil, it seems, is being pushed back yet again.
但是不只是我们更聪明地开采石油 But it's not just that we've got smarter at getting oil.
我们也找到了新的方法勘探化石燃油 We've also found new ways to exploit fossil fuels.
Titusville是宾夕法尼亚的一个小镇 Titusville is a small town in western Pennsylvania.
1859年在那里 It was here, in 1859,
世界开始了第一次商业钻井石油 that the world's first commercial drilling for oil began.
今天 再一次 Today, yet again,
这地区站在能源革命的前线 this region is at the forefront of an energy revolution.
这是页岩 躺在宾夕法尼亚地区的岩石 This is shale, a rock that underlies much of the Pennsylvanian region.
它是泥土转变为石头 听起来真的无聊 It's just mud turned into stone. Sounds kind of boring really,
但是锁在它里面的东西 却完全不同 but it's what's locked in with the mud that makes all the difference.
把液体加热方法 Heating the liquid solution
允许我们看到岩石里面困住着什么东西 allows us to see what's trapped in the rock.
开始什么也没发生 Initially, not much happens.
大师几分钟后 But after a few minutes,
热量使得岩石里面的燃气开始膨胀 the heating makes gas trapped in the rock expand,
冒泡到表面 and it bubbles to the surface.
能源公司一直在竞赛开采这种燃气 And energy companies have been racing to extract this gas
处理流程叫“水力压裂” in a process called fracking.
水被打压到很高的压力 Water is pumped under high pressure
可以破坏岩石释放燃气 to crack the rock and release the gas.
这些细小的泡泡也许看起来没多少 These tiny bubbles might not seem like much,
但是页岩气使得美国 but shale gas has made the US
再一次变成主要的碳氢生产国 a major hydrocarbon-producing nation once again.
有专家说也许 Some experts even say that it might
会取代俄罗斯和中东 displace Russia and the Middle East
就像世界最大的能源生产国 as the world's biggest energy producer...
沙特阿拉伯 ..Saudi America.
这个成功不只是因为页岩气 This success isn't just due to shale gas.
石油资源正在被新的非传统的方法勘探 Oil sources are also being exploited in new and unconventional ways.
重油 含油砂 页岩油 Heavy oil, tar sands, shale oil.
综合起来称为“非传统油气” Collectively known as "unconventional oil and gas",
这些资源和 these resources stand in contrast
传统的我们依赖的油井不同 to the conventional wells we've relied on.
这导致了在美国的一个乐观的时期 This has led to a period of optimism in the US.
一切照常 It's business as usual.
随着新的科技延伸传统油井的寿命 With new technology extending the life of conventional wells,
以及非传统资源的挖掘 and unconventional resources being extracted,
看起来碳氢时代 it seems like the Hydrocarbon Age
在21世纪会很好地延伸 will extend well into the 21st century.
Steve 非传统化石燃料有多重要呢？ So, Steve, how important have the unconventional fossil fuels been?
非传统资源 今天 大约占了全球供应的7% Unconventionals, today, make up about 7% of the global oil supply
所以它们很重要 但还不是主要的 so they're important, but they're not the core of it.
93%的石油供应还是和2005年一样 对吗？ 93% of the oil supply is still what was there in 2005, OK?
关于非传统能源就像 So, the way to think about unconventionals
他们是蛋糕上的糖霜（锦上添花）但不是蛋糕本身 is they're the icing on the cake, but not the cake itself.
那个蛋糕 今天 比2005年时候小了一些 That cake, today, is smaller than it was in 2005,
所以传统能源 我们去掉油砂和页岩油 so that conventional... If we take out oil sands and shale oils,
传统能源供应确实比2005年少了 the conventional supply is actually smaller than it was in 2005.
基本上 我们通常的 So, basically, we've got the conventional,
传统的石油供应在下降 the traditional oil supplies declining,
非传统能源供应在增加 the unconventionals are getting bigger,
但是非传统供应还很少 和传统的相比？ but they're dwarfed, really, by the conventionals?
对的 还很少 Correct, they're still very small,
我们不知道可以持续多久 and we don't know how far they can run.
那非传统能源 Is it the case that the unconventionals -
页岩油 页岩气 是某种掩盖石油峰值？ shale oil, shale gas - have kind of masked peak oil,
根本上 掩盖了下滑？ essentially, masked the decline?
他们在新闻里掩盖了 They have masked it in terms of the press
在工业里也一样 and in terms of the industry...narrative.
担心的不是地底下石油的数量 The concern is not the volume of oil in the ground.
地底下有很多很多的石油 There's plenty of oil in the ground, lots and lots and lots of oil.
问题是 我们能否得到它 The question is, can we get to it,
用经济的办法？ and can we do that in an economical way?
MUSIC OVER SPEECH
自从Hubbert在1950年代提出了“石油峰值”的幽灵 Since Hubbert raised the spectre of peak oil in the 1950s,
像Steve这样的作家怀疑他是否正确 experts like Steve have been debating if he was right,
我们也许会耗尽石油 and when we might run out of oil.
当在我看来没有那么容易 But it seems to me that there's no easy answer
回答“石油峰值”问题 to the issue of peak oil...
因为它是一个涉及 ..because it's an issue that revolves around
我们消耗多少 地下还有多少 how much oil we consume, how much is left in the ground,
什么价格是我们愿意支付的 and what price we're willing to pay.
但是不只是这个代价 我们取暖的 But it's not just about the cost of heating our homes
或者我们汽车需要的 可能有更多的风险 or filling our cars. There could be much more at stake.
当能源专家在争论 While energy experts argue about
Hubbert的“石油峰值”预测是否对错 whether Hubbert's peak oil prediction is right or wrong,
这个争论很快变成一个学术问题 the whole debate is fast becoming a bit academic.
那是因为 在过去大约10年左右 一个不同寻常的 That's cos, in the last decade or so, a very different threat
我们能源供应的威胁开始笼罩全球 to our energy supplies has come to overshadow the world.
在1982年 BBC科学连续剧“水平” In 1982, the BBC science series Horizon
转播了联合国赞助的“星球的状态”争论 televised a United Nations sponsored debate on The State Of The Planet.
来自全球的专家证人聚集一起 Expert witnesses from around the world came together
在保护环境方面我们取得的进步 to examine the progress we'd made in protecting the world's environment.
发言者毫不手下留情 The speakers didn't pull any punches.
他们描绘了一幅相当严峻的画面 They painted a pretty grim picture.
干旱 Drought.
饥荒 Famine.
污染 Pollution.
人口飞速增长 Breakneck population growth.
酸雨 Acid rain.
资源战争 森林被毁 物种灭绝 Resource wars, deforestation, species extinction
被标榜为我们面临的最大挑战 were paraded as our biggest challenges.
今天没有国家想生活在 No society today wants to live within
他们自己的资源里面 the resources of its own environment.
都想别的地方的资源 It wants resources from everywhere else.
在此过程中 没人认识到 And in the process, nobody recognises what is
需要对环境做点什么 因为无利可图 being done to the environment because it has no interest.
回到1980年代 我们刚开始 Back in the 1980s, we were just starting to get
意识到“全球变暖”问题 a sense of what would become known as global warming,
这就是为什么在这次辩论中几乎没有提及 which is why it gets barely a mention in this debate.
但是我在这次摄影中惊奇地发现 But what I find fascinating about this film is that,
当那些问题还没有解决 while none of these issues have gone away,
今天气候变化是主要的环境议程 today it's climate change that dominates the environmental agenda.
为何会这样的答案 就在这个盒子里 The answer as to why that is... is contained in this box.
自从19世纪以来我们一直大量消费化石燃油 Since the 19th century, we've been on a fossil-fuel binge
燃烧碳氢化合物像煤炭 石油和燃气 and the burning of hydrocarbons like coal, oil and gas
以前所未有的速度释放二氧化碳到大气中 has released carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate.
当大气中的二氧化碳增加 As carbon dioxide builds up in the atmosphere,
它会产生就像某种无形的过滤 it creates this kind of invisible filter
困住了越来越多的地球热量 that traps more and more of the Earth's heat down here,
而不是让热量散发到太空 rather than let it escape off into space.
这就产生了变暖效应 And that produces a net warming effect.
现在 像这样的仪器可以实际检测二氧化碳水平 Now, devices like this can actually measure the CO2 levels -
实际的检测仪器在这里 the actual measuring device is in here -
你可以看到显示器上的数字 and you can see the numbers on this screen here.
让我们看看有什么 So, let's see what we get.
二氧化碳水平的检测单位是百万分之几 Levels of carbon dioxide are measured in parts per million.
在19世纪 In the 19th century,
二氧化碳水平在百万分之300 the level sat below 300 parts per million.
在1950年代 是百万分之315 In the 1950s, the levels were measured at 315 parts per million,
到了80年代中期是350 rising to 350 by the mid-eighties.
从那开始 二氧化碳的水平不只是上升 Since then, the levels of carbon dioxide have not only risen,
而是飞速上升 they've accelerated rapidly.
我知道你在想什么 I know what you're thinking,
你在想这里街上的二氧化碳水平 you're thinking down here at street level,
所有这些交通和人们正在呼吸的 all this traffic and all these people breathing on it
这将是真正奇怪的测试 then this is going to be a really strange measurement,
非常正确 这些测试 and, right enough, I mean, these measurements
都超过百万分之400 are pretty consistently over 400 parts per million.
但重要的是 像这样的测试 But the thing is, measurements like this get made, you know,
每天 横穿全球 当数值平均后 every day, right across the world, and when they get averaged,
给你那种全球平均值 结果 to give you the kind of global mean, it turns out that
是百万分之398 that number is about 398 parts per million.
在我们的星球历史上 气候改变过很多次 The climate has changed many times in our planet's history,
但是这次气候变化是因为我们的行为 but, this time, much of that change is because of our behaviour.
但我们超过百万分之400 我们 When we exceed 400 parts per million, we'll mark
到了人类历史上最高的大气二氧化碳含量 the highest levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide in human history.
问题是如果含量继续升高 The concern is that, if levels continue to rise,
我们会把地球的温度提高到灾难性的水平 we'll raise the global temperature to catastrophic levels.
也许地底下有很多石油 There might be lots of oil left in the ground,
但是我们真的能够负担得了吗？ but the question is, can we really afford to burn it?
大约80%的世界能源来自化石燃油 Around 80% of the world's energy comes from fossil fuels
然而气候科学家告诉我们 and yet climate scientists are telling us
我们只有数十年最多的时间减少对它们的依赖 that we've got a few decades at most to reduce our dependence on them
推迟危险的气候变化 and stave off dangerous climate change.
但我们真做得到吗？ But can we really do that?
为低碳的未来 有多容易设定路线？ How easy is it to set course for a...for a low-carbon future?
低碳未来意味着要改变我们如何生产能源 Achieving a low-carbon future means changing how we produce energy.
我们确实有一系列的选择 We do have a range of options,
也许是最明显的可再生能源 perhaps the most obvious being renewable energy.
全球包括英国 政府都在投资 All over the world, including the UK, governments are investing in
“可再生能源家庭” 太阳能 风能 氢电池 潮汐能 the "renewable family" - solar, wind, hydroelectric, tidal.
利用能量 The idea of harnessing the power
来自我们星球的潮起潮落是有吸引力的想法 in the natural ebbs and flow of our planet is an attractive one,
因为它提供给我们几乎零碳的能量 because it offers us a practically zero-carbon energy
不再依赖有限的资源 that doesn't rely on a finite resource.
但是可再生取代碳氢化合物 But for renewables to replace hydrocarbons,
我们需要大量提升他们的数量 we'd need to increase their numbers massively.
虽然投资数年 Despite years of investment,
所有再生能源只提供给英国 the entire renewable family only produces the UK
约15%的我们消耗的电力 with about 15% of all the electricity we consume.
也许有人认为再生能源是未来切实可行的 For some, renewables are a viable future option,
但似乎光靠它们还远远不够 but is seems unlikely they'll be enough on their own.
2013年10月 一群世界上顶级的气候科学家 In November 2013, a group of the world's top climate scientists
写给国际领导人公开信 wrote this open letter to international leaders.
他们说时间在耗尽 They said time is running out.
光靠再生能源供应 Renewable energy supplies on their own
将不足以阻止气候的极端变化 won't be enough to head off the extremes of climate change.
对他们来说 在某个方面 For them, in some shape or form,
核能必须成为混合能源的一部分 nuclear had to be part of the energy mix.
虽然核工业有着成功与失败并存的历史 Although the nuclear industry has a chequered history
核泄漏和像日本福岛这样的事故 of radiation leaks and accidents like Fukushima,
一些气候科学家认为全球变暖 some climate scientists argue that the threat of global warming
的威胁更加大 poses a much bigger risk to the planet.
这里是挪威 Here in Norway,
研发正在进行 也许会改变核能源的声誉 research is taking place that might change the image of nuclear power,
因为他们正在实验改变铀燃料 because they're trying an alternative to uranium fuel.
多漂亮的国家 不是吗？ Such a beautiful country, isn't it?
从山顶 你可以看到Halden港口 From this hilltop you can see the port of Halden
离奥斯陆南面几个小时车程 which is a couple of hours' drive south of Oslo,
在那边是挪威峡湾 and then beyond that it's the... it's the fjords.
看起来不像那种地方 It just doesn't seem like the kind of place
测试不同核燃料的地方 to be testing a different kind of nuclear fuel.
然而你看不到的是就躺在我脚下的 And yet what you can't see is what lies directly beneath my feet...
核反应堆 ..a nuclear reactor.
在这座镂空的山的深处 Deep inside this hollowed-out mountain,
一个叫Thor Energy的公司正在开展一个实验 a company called Thor Energy are conducting an experiment.
一个传统的核电站有点像巨型的水壶 A conventional nuclear power station is a bit like a giant kettle.
充满铀燃料芯块 燃料棒被放入水中 Filled with uranium fuel pellets, fuel rods are placed in water.
就是这些芯块产生热量 It's these pellets generate the heat
烧开水让它们形成蒸汽 that boils the water to create steam.
蒸汽推动巨型涡轮发电 And it's the steam which turns giant turbines to generate electricity.
铀燃料芯块释放巨量能量 The uranium fuel pellets release huge amounts of energy,
但是副作用是废钚燃料会产生 but the downside is that waste plutonium is produced,
它依旧有高辐射 which is highly radioactive.
Thor Energy公司计划做的聪明事情是 The clever thing that Thor Energy are proposing to do
利用废钚燃料和一种叫钍的元素混合 is to use plutonium and mix this with an element called thorium,
产生新的燃料芯块 to make a new type of fuel pellet.
那么 钍元素的好处是什么？ So, what are the benefits of thorium?
钍元素有很多好处 Many benefits of thorium.
首先它比铀多4倍 For a start, it's four times more plentiful than uranium,
我们可以在地球找到足够的钍元素 and we've probably got enough thorium on the planet
至少可供应一万年 这意味着它是可持续的燃料 to last us 10,000 years, which means it's a sustainable fuel.
但是最主要的是 我们可以带走这些遗留的废料 But on top of that, we can take the existing legacy waste,
我们可以把它们用作燃料 and we can use that as fuel.
我们能够变成一个真正可靠的资产 We can turn a liability, a real liability, into a real asset
通过我们已经有的混合废料 by mixing the waste that we've already got,
过去50年里核能产生的废料 from the last 50 years of nuclear power,
和钍元素混合 然后就像燃料一样燃烧 with the thorium, and then burning that as fuel as well.
所以我们产生更少的废物 同时处理掉现存的废料 So, we're generating less waste, and we're getting rid of existing waste.
这个工艺不仅仅只帮助处理掉废料 This process would not only help get rid of existing nuclear waste,
它还可以产生巨量的能量 it would generate a staggering amount of energy.
像这样的每个芯块 Each pellet, like that,
大概等于800升柴油 is equivalent to about 800 litres of diesel
产生的能量 in terms of the energy that it can generate.
那有许多的柴油 那里有多少这样的呢？ That's a shedload of diesel. And how many of them would there be?
一个满载的反应堆 为电网发电 In a full-scale reactor, generating electricity for the grid,
大约200万个 about two million.
我不会计算 应该是许多的等同能量 I can't even do the maths! That's a lot of equivalent energy.
是有许多的能量 A lot of equivalent energy.
想想那个未来这非常棒 It's amazing to think that the future, or a future,
一个能源未来 像这样的规模 one of the energy futures, is something the size of that.
对的 根本上 它是一个家庭一年所需的能量 That's right, essentially, it's the energy for a household for a year.
一年一个家庭的能量？ 喔 Energy for a household for a year? Wow!
最好别吞了它 我会还给你 Better not swallow it. I'm going to give it back to you,
如果我扔了 我家的能源就这么掉到洞里了 What if I drop it! The energy of my house has just gone down that hole!
Bob递给我的就像魔术子弹 What Bob has handed to me seems like a magic bullet.
但有个问题 'But there's a problem.
在Halden的实验试图证明 The tests at Halden are an attempt to prove
钍元素可以以工业规模应有 that thorium can be used on an industrial scale.
初步的结果不错 'Initial results are positive
但是为钍元素用于商业核反应堆扫清道路 'but to clear thorium for use in commercial nuclear reactors
将会需要更多的测试和分析 'will take even further tests and analysis.
这会需要时间和投资 'That will take time, and investment,
意味着钍元素还要花上数十年才能应用 'meaning that thorium could take decades to implement.'
但与此同时 我们的能源需求继续上升 But, in the meantime, our energy demands keep increasing.
全球 电力的需求比1980年翻翻 Globally, demand for electricity has doubled since 1980,
到2035年预计还会翻翻 and it's expected to double again by 2035.
迪拜也不例外 And Dubai is no exception.
不到一个世纪 一个沉睡的渔港已经转变为 In less than a century, a sleepy fishing port has been transformed
海湾地区商业首都之一 into one of the commercial capitals in the Gulf.
这种变化已经齐头并进 That change has gone hand-in-hand
随着贪得无厌的电力需求 with an insatiable demand for electricity.
在石油峰值期间迪拜 During peak times in Dubai,
60%的电力用于空调 60% of all electricity is used for air conditioning.
只要在热浪里呆几分钟 'And, after just a few minutes in the heat,
你就会知道为何了 'you can understand why.'
你不知道这感觉多好 非常好 You don't know how good this feels, so much better.
这里面所有地方基本上 I mean, basically everywhere inside around here
空调温度设在20度 is air-conditioned down to about 20 degrees.
这也许只是因为大量的油气 That's only possible because vast amounts of oil and gas
意味着充足和便宜的能源 mean abundant, cheap energy.
所以这是地球最后一个地方 So, this is the last place in the world
你想学到教训所谓的 that you'd expect to learn lessons about what's called
“第五燃料能源效率” the fifth fuel energy efficiency.
虽然拥有地球最大的石油储备 'Despite sitting on some of the biggest oil reserves in the world,
阿联酋正在寻找使用少量能源的新方法 'the United Arab Emirates is looking at new ways to use less energy.
乍一看 Abu Dhabi外面焦干的沙漠地形 At first glance, the parched desert landscape just outside Abu Dhabi
看起来不像是建设城市的地方 'looks like the craziest place to build any city,
更别说一座可持续的城市 'let alone a sustainable one.
但是Masdar City的愿景是探索新的方法 But the vision here at Masdar City is to pioneer a new approach
城市设计和能源运用 'in the way cities are designed and use energy.'
建筑很漂亮 对吗？ This architecture is just beautiful, isn't it?
非常雅致和独特 是的 It's very elegant and distinctive. Yeah.
那么这地方的氛围是什么 So what's the ethos about this place,
整件事情后面的愿景是什么？ and the kind of vision behind the whole thing?
所有的想法是去设计 The whole idea is to design
一座城市 工程化城市 a city, engineer the city,
用非常少的能源 so that, with very little energy,
你可以觉得舒服 you can be comfortable
即使在盛夏 even in the middle of summer.
如何建造城市 And every aspect of how a city is put together,
如何管理城市的每个方面都是目的 of how a city is managed, goes towards that goal.
为何强调城市或者城市地区？ So, why the emphasis on cities, or urban areas?
嗯 那很好 Well, that's a very good point.
如果我们关注全球变暖 If we are going to be concerned about global warming,
我想我们应该关注 and I think we should be,
城市排放70%-75%的二氧化碳 cities produce between 70 and 75% of CO2.
所以Masdar City作为Masdar生态公司的一部分 So, Masdar City, as part of the Masdar ecosystem of companies,
尤为关心城市应该如何设计 is particularly concerned about how cities should be designed,
建造和运营来减少二氧化碳 built and operated, to reduce CO2.
这些建筑被设计减少排放 'The buildings here are designed to reduce emissions
通过使得它们更有效利用能源 在炎热的沙漠天气 'by making them more energy efficient in the hot desert climate.
Masdar项目后面的人们相信这个原理 And the people behind the Masdar project believe this is a principle
可以运用到每栋建筑 地球上任何地方 'that can be applied to any building, anywhere in the world.'
我被这优势的结构迷住了 I'm intrigued by this dominating structure.
这是风塔 风塔？ This is the wind tower. Wind tower?
典型的阿拉伯设计 In classical Arabian design,
想法是抓取高出的冷风 the idea was to catch the breeze higher up which is cooler,
通过结构往下送 and funnel it down through the structure
使人们呆着的庭院和屋子冷却 so that cooler air was where people were in courtyards and in houses.
传统办法 穿上潮湿的衣服 And traditionally, you used to cool the air by having damp cloths,
或淋上水的动物皮来降温 or animal skins with water in them.
这里 我们运用现代科技降温 Here, we use modern technology where we can cool it
利用喷雾并把它推下来 with misting, and it pushes it down.
所以如果我们到中间 应该更凉快些 是那样的理论吗？ So, if we go into the middle, it'll get cooler, is that the theory?
绝对 我可以试试吗？ 当然 Absolutely. Can I try it? Yeah.
所以 这是水蒸气降温 根本的科学原理 So, it's evaporative cooling, essentially, the science of it.
就是那样 That's exactly what it is.
所以 So... So...
是的 你一进入就可以感觉到 好多了 Oh, yeah, yeah. As soon as you get in, you feel it. Much better.
类似的办法被运用以保持温度下降 'Similar tricks are used to keep the temperature down.
狭窄的小巷和高高的建筑确保阻挡光线 'Narrow lanes and tall buildings ensure shade.
窗户设计为阻挡热的太阳光线 'Windows are designed to break up hot sunlight.
交通运输也是这样 'The work extends to the transport.
电气无人驾驶汽车带你从一个地方到另一个地方 'Electric, driverless cars take you from one place to another.
这很容易被怀疑“Masdar City”的目的 It's tempting to be sceptical about Masdar City.
会是什么情形 如果我们看到像这样的东西在伦敦 'Just how likely is it that we'll see things like this in London,
曼切斯特或者格拉斯哥？ Manchester or Glasgow?
但Masdar City希望这能够激励其它人 But Masdar City hopes it will inspire others
重视能源效率 'to take energy efficiency seriously,
按照这样的思路设计城市和家庭 'and to plan homes and cities with this in mind.
而Masdar得野心远不止这里 And Masdar's ambitions don't end there.
公司也在探索再生能源的利用 'The company is also pioneering the use of renewable energy,
不只是这里的Masdar City and not just here in Masdar City.'
Abu Dhabi南面几小时车程 Masdar Project已经建造了 A couple of hours south of Abu Dhabi, the Masdar Project has built
中东最大的太阳能电站 the biggest solar plant in the Middle East.
一直保持着他们绿色的资历 这个太阳能电站 In keeping with their green credentials, this solar plant
能够每年供应2万户家庭的电力 can provide year-round power to 20,000 homes.
作为地质学家 我发现讽刺的是这些太阳能电板 As a geologist, I find it ironic that these solar panels,
总共有25万块 就坐落在 all quarter of a million of them, are sitting on top of
世界最大的油气储备上面 the biggest oil and gas reserve on the planet.
而这才是难点 And that's the rub, really.
我的意思是 这不合常理 我们完全依赖这些 I mean, it's perverse that we're so utterly dependent on those
有限的深埋在我们脚下的碳氢化合物 finite hydrocarbons deep beneath our feet
远超过这里无限的再生的能源 rather than the kind of limitless, renewable energy up here.
Masdar的愿景是城市要设计 为了环境 Masdar's vision is of cities that are designed for an environment
和由再生能源供应能量 and powered by renewables.
然而 批评家会承认这些再生能源很好很不错 Yet, critics would claim all these renewables are all well and good,
但是不能满足我们现代世界的巨大需求 but can't satisfy the gluttonous demands of our modern world.
核能 可再生而且能源高效 'Nuclear, renewables and energy efficiency
在解决我们未来能源方面可能会有作用 'could all play a role in solving our future energy problems.
我们面临的问题是它还需要时间 也许数十年 'The difficulty we face is that it will take years, possibly decades,
直到这些能源到了这样的规模 'until these energy sources exist on such a scale
可以取代碳氢化合物 'that they can replace hydrocarbons.'
也就是说 它们将会需要时间 In other words, it's going to take time.
而气候科学家 Time is something climate scientists
警告我们并没有那么多时间 are warning us we don't have.
所以 我们怎样减少碳排放 So, how can we reduce our carbon emissions
在我们等待能源转换资源准备好的这段时间内？ while we wait for alternative energy sources to be ready?
Aberdeenshire海岸60英里以外 Over 60 miles off the Aberdeenshire coast,
在北部海域 out in the wilds of the North Sea,
一个世界上最大的能源生产者 one of the world's biggest energy producers
正在着手一项新的方案 is working on an innovative solution.
直到2011年 壳牌的Goldeneye石油平台常吸收天然气 Until 2011, Shell's Goldeneye platform used to suck natural gas
从海床下面 燃气常用于加热我们的房子 from below the seabed, gas that was used to heat our homes.
今天 壳牌正在发展世界上最先 Today, Shell is developing one of the world's first
的商用规模的碳捕捉和存储之一的项目CCS commercial-scale carbon capture and storage projects, CCS.
Iain 我们正处在一个将需要大量能源 Iain, we are in a world that's going to need a lot more energy,
和极少二氧化碳的世界 and a lot less CO2.
碳捕捉和存储 是一个科技 And CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, is the one technology
会允许我们持续使用发电站 that is going to allow us to keep using the power plants,
重工业 没有二氧化碳排放到大气中 the heavy industry, without the CO2 emissions going up in the air.
新的项目目标是乎寻常容易 The new project proposes something deceptively simple -
利用曾经开采燃气的管道 逆向流动 use the pipes that once extracted gas, and reverse the flow.
发电站排放的二氧化碳能够被捕捉 Carbon dioxide emissions from a power station would be captured,
现有的管道将会把它沿着60英里的海床运输到 and existing pipes would transport it along 60 miles of sea floor
黄金眼石油平台 to the Goldeneye platform.
那里 气体被送入5口油井 There, the gas would travel down five wells,
开始填满曾经供给我们天然气的储备 and start to fill the reservoir that once provided us with natural gas.
所以 在英国所有的发电站最终 So, is the idea that, in the UK, all the power stations would eventually
会这样做？ 我们在想，后面几十年沿着这条路？ have this? Are we thinking, a couple of decades down the road?
我想也许会比这更大 I think it's probably going to be bigger than that.
这是将会被需要和部署 This is a technology that's going to be needed to be deployed
到整个世界的科技 across the world.
是可以在任何国家部署的科技 It's a technology that can be applied in any country
横穿一些行业 and across a number of industries.
那么 我认为本土运用的想法太小了 So, I think the vision of local is too small,
我想我们需要一个很大的愿景 I think we need a much bigger vision.
你认为CCS是绝对重要的部分 You say CCS is an absolutely critical part
对于低碳未来？ of the low-carbon future?
是一个关键部分 所有组合的一部分 It's a critical part, it's all part of the mix.
到2050年 我们会需要差不多2倍的能源 We're going to need almost twice the energy going forward by 2050
比现在 that we're using today,
这意味着混合科技必须尽可能广泛使用 and that means the mix has got to be as broad as possible,
二氧化碳的排放必须减少 and yet the emissions, the CO2 emissions, need to come down.
对于混合科技CCS是重要的组成 So, for the broad mix, CCS is a critical component.
CCS似乎提供给我们一个持续使用碳氢化合物的机会 'CCS seems to offer us the chance to keep burning fossil fuels.
但是它的可行性还存在问题 But there are questions over its viability.
有些人担心储存的二氧化碳可能会泄露 'Some fear that the stored carbon dioxide could leak.
另外的指出工业规模使用这些设施 'Others point out that implementing this on an industrial scale
也许在数十年后 'is possibly decades away.
ccs也许是我们能源未来的一部分 'CCS may be a part of our energy future,
但只有跟随其他的能源 'but only alongside other energy sources.
它们中的一些 毫无疑问 是碳氢化合物 'And one of those will, undoubtedly, be hydrocarbons
因为我们更加依赖它们 'because we rely on them for far more than energy.'
碳氢化合物生产了我们每天接触的东西 Hydrocarbons create things we touch every single day.
它们已经涉及到我们生活的方方面面 They've integrated their way into so many different facets of our lives.
现代生活完全依赖它们 Modern life is utterly dependent upon them.
就像一个石油人指出 'As one oilman put it,
如果石油不存在了我们也必须发明它 '"If oil didn't exist, we would have to invent it."'
在我看来，我们在我们的故事已经到了一个关键的十字路口 It seems to me we've reached a critical junction in our story,
我们面临的一个严峻的选择 and we face a stark choice -
我们是继续满足我们的瘾头 do we continue to feed our addiction,
吸干石油星球 suck Planet Oil dry,
还是我们拼命地去替代能源 or do we go hell-for-leather for alternative energy sources,
核能 可再生资源 nuclear, renewables,
从我们的化石燃油过度到一个低碳的未来？ and go from our fossil fuel past to a low-carbon future?
如果那样 我们应该如何切换？ In which case, how do we make that shift?
转换能源资源需要 'To make the switch to alternative energy sources will require
重大的投资和精心的计划 'a serious investment and careful planning.
但是根据Mike Bowman教授 But according to Professor Mike Bowman,
没人有一个实际的计划来做这基本的改变 'no-one has a realistic plan to make this fundamental change.'
我们已经变得 作为地球人 作为人口 作为人种 We've become, as a globe, as a population, as a race,
某种关于碳氢化合物的肤浅认识和随意支取 so kind of glib about hydrocarbons and taking it for granted,
实际上我们现在需要做的是 and actually what we need to do now
非常严重 is actually be very serious.
我们已到了困难时刻 We're at a really tough time,
就像在十字路口 it's almost like a crossroads.
确实我们需要确保 And, actually, we need to be making sure
我们从这些油气里获得利益 that we're taking some of the profit from this oil and gas,
再重大投资到它的将来 and seriously reinvesting it in the future.
所以那需要一个战略 So that's having a strategy,
短期来说 意识到碳氢化合物在这里 in the short term, realising that hydrocarbons are here,
转移到可再生能源 to shift across to the renewables
我们说到的时间段是多少？ 数十年？ in...what kind of time period are we talking about? Decades?
我想大约20 25年 I'm talking about 20, 25 years, I think.
我想我们现在必须要有战略 但我没看到这战略 I think we've got to have a strategy now, and I don't see the strategy,
在英国 全球都没看到 I don't see it in the UK, and I don't see it globally.
我想我们必须有某些有力而高效的战略 I think we've really got to have some energy strategies that have teeth,
真正像回事 and that have real meaning,
使人们了解最后会发生什么 and that people understand what's going to happen as a result of it.
但我想我们确实对我们的孩子有很大的责任 But I think we do have an enormous responsibility for our children,
我们孩子的孩子 and our children's children.
达成全球战略一直有尝试 There have been attempts to come up with a global strategy.
自从1992年里约热内卢峰会 Ever since the Rio summit in 1992,
世界领导人聚集谈论气候变化 world leaders have gathered to discuss climate change
和将要做些什么 and what to do about it.
过去了20多年 For over 20 years,
我们已经有了宣言 协议和条款 we've had declarations, agreements and treaties.
虽然这样 Despite this,
还是没有法律约束国际条约 there's still no legally binding international agreement
来减少碳排放 to reduce carbon emissions.
对有些人们 光说不做的时间已经过去 For some people, the time for talking is passed.
2014年9月 4万名游行者走上伦敦街头 In September 2014, 40,000 marchers took to the streets of London
示威反对缺乏行动 to protest against the lack of action.
他们在唱 THEY CHANT
是什么让你走到大街上？ What's brought you out on the street, then?
让人们意识到 To make people aware
燃烧化石燃油的问题 of the issues associated with burning fossil fuels.
很明显 就是气候变化 Clearly, that is climate change.
它已经开始生效 我们了解它有15年了 It's really kicking in. We've known about it for 15 years.
但是政府15年前不听我们 But the governments didn't listen to us 15 years ago.
我们需要一致的国际协议减少排放 We need a solid international agreement to reduce emissions
否则很多人民会死去 otherwise more people are going to die,
会使许多人们遭罪 and it's going to cause a lot of human suffering.
气候变化是目前最重要的问题 Climate change is the most important problem we have at the moment.
每个人都在谈论经济 这个那个 Everyone talks about the economy and this and that,
但这是我们的星球 but it's our planet, really.
有一个很强烈的感觉在里面 There's a really strong feeling in there
关于政治行动 说真的一直是在浪费时间 that, in terms of political action, it's been a waste of time, really.
从1992年世界领导人聚集在里约热内卢起 Ever since those world leaders all got together in Rio in 1992,
什么也没发生 that nothing's really happened.
他们说得有道理 And they've got a point.
我指的是大气的二氧化碳水平在加速提高 I mean, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are accelerating,
不是降低 去年又创一个新高 they're not falling, and last year was another record high.
他们所请求的 他们所要求的看起来很简单 What they're asking, what they're demanding seems quite simple -
就是减少二氧化碳排放 it's a cut in the level of carbon emissions.
在同一天 类似的游行发生在全世界 'On the same day, similar marches took place all over the world.
超过50万人走上街头 'More than half a million people took to the streets
在十几个国家 'in over a dozen countries.
组织者宣称这是历史上最大的气候游行 'The organisers claim it was the biggest climate march in history.
下一次气候峰会在2015年巴黎举行 'The next climate summit is due to take place in Paris in 2015.
示威者要求世界领导人 'The protesters are demanding that world leaders
这次真正达成协议 'actually reach a deal this time -
全球协议约束二氧化碳排放 'a global agreement to slash carbon dioxide emissions
在未来数十年 'in the coming decades.
综合起来 这些示威游行指向一件事 'Collectively, these demonstrations point to one thing,
要求改变 'a demand for change.
他们表达担心缺乏实际进展 'They're expressing a fear that the lack of real progress
带领我们走向不归路 'is taking us to the point of no return.'
如果我们的政客们没认识到状况的危急 'If our politicians don't recognise the urgency of the situation,
故意不同意能源计划 'and can't agree on an energy plan with meaning,
那么将会所以都太迟了 'then it will all be too late.
回到50年代 Marion King Hubbert预测 Back in the fifties, Marion King Hubbert predicted
在我有生之年我们会耗尽石油 'that we'd run out of oil in my lifetime.
但似乎是新科技帮助我们 'But the likelihood is new technology will help us
继续吸干石油星球为了满足我们的瘾头 'to continue sucking Planet Oil dry, in order to feed our addiction.'
你知道 在石油故事里 不断出现的提问是 You know, in the story of oil, the question that keeps on coming up is,
我们会耗尽吗？ Are we running out?
但是实际上这是个不是问题的问题 But, actually, that's such a non-issue.
真正的问题是 我们如何避免燃烧这些我们已有的东西 The real issue is, how do we avoid burning the stuff we've already got,
我们已经了解的东西？ the stuff we know about?
在化石燃料而言，它们似乎有更多的责任 In fossil fuel terms, they seem like more of a liability.
从地底下挖出它们变得越来越困难和昂贵 They're getting harder and more expensive to get out of the ground.
它们把我们和我们的气候推向了不可预知的恐惧 They're pushing us and our climate into more unpredictable territory.
随着可再生低碳未来的展望 And with the prospect of a renewable low-carbon future,
这看起来只是像写在墙上 it just seems that the writing's on the wall.
我也许活不过石油星球的寿命 You know, I may not outlive the age of Planet Oil,
但我想我们的孩子会 but I think my kids will.
那种感觉会带来一个有趣的问题 And, in that sense, it brings a much more interesting question of,
那时候的地球会变成怎样？ What will that planet look like?